申万宏观·周度研究成果（8.23-8.29）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic landscape, focusing on service industry openness, labor market conditions, inflation trends, and social security reforms, highlighting potential opportunities and challenges in these areas [7][10][14][27]. Group 1: Deep Dive on Service Industry - The State Council emphasizes the need to promote service trade and leverage service imports to boost local service industry development, indicating a shift towards service industry openness as a new growth area [7]. Group 2: Economic Outlook and Labor Market - Economic growth is slowing, with a real GDP growth rate of 1.2% in the first half of 2025, significantly lower than the previous year's figures, primarily due to reduced consumer spending [11]. - The labor market shows signs of risk, with average monthly job additions dropping to 35,000 in the last three months, down from 168,000 in 2024, indicating a weakening job market [11]. - The unemployment rate's stability is threatened by a significant slowdown in labor force growth and participation rates, suggesting an increase in job loss risks [11]. Group 3: Inflation Trends - Inflation remains a concern, with July's PCE showing a year-on-year increase of 2.6% and core PCE at 2.9%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [11]. - The impact of tariffs on inflation is becoming evident, with expectations of continued accumulation in the coming months, although the timing and magnitude of these effects remain uncertain [11]. Group 4: Social Security Reform - The article highlights the need for social security system improvements and reforms, particularly in light of rapid demographic changes, suggesting that this will be a key focus during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [14]. Group 5: Economic Resilience - The second half of 2025 may see a "strong-weak switch" in economic growth dynamics, with certain sectors showing resilience while others face challenges, particularly in manufacturing and service industries [18][27]. - Export performance may exceed expectations, driven not by opportunistic exports but by improvements in external demand and market share [27].