注意了！美股下周就将步入全年“最凶险的月份”

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential challenges and risks facing the U.S. stock market as it enters September, historically known for its volatility and downturns, particularly for the S&P 500 index, which has a 56% probability of decline in September based on historical data [2][4][6]. Group 1: Market Trends and Historical Data - The S&P 500 index has experienced declines in September six times over the past ten years, with an average drop of 1.93%, marking it as the worst month historically [5]. - Historical data indicates that the average decline in September is 1.17%, with a higher probability of 58% during the first year of a presidential term [2][5]. Group 2: Current Market Conditions - Recent market behavior shows a rotation where previously strong sectors, particularly those related to artificial intelligence, are now underperforming, with Nvidia's stock dropping 3.4% and Dell Technologies falling approximately 8.9% due to weak profit forecasts [8]. - The S&P 500 index has surged 17% since early May, leading to concerns about overvaluation, with forward P/E ratios nearing levels seen during the dot-com bubble [9]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Actions - Hedge funds have increased their stock holdings to the 80th percentile, indicating potential overexposure, which could lead to selling pressure during portfolio rebalancing at the end of September [10]. - Retail investor activity has shown signs of slowing down after a strong performance in June and July, with September typically being a low point for retail participation [10]. Group 4: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Actions - Upcoming macroeconomic events, including non-farm payroll reports and inflation data, are expected to significantly influence market direction, alongside anticipated monetary policy decisions from the Federal Reserve [6]. - The yield curve has shown significant changes, with the difference between two-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields reaching its highest level since early 2022, which could disrupt the stock market [6]. Group 5: Volatility and Market Risks - September and October are historically associated with increased volatility, with the VIX index typically averaging around 20, while it recently closed at 15.36, indicating a potential underestimation of risk [12]. - There is a growing caution among traders, as evidenced by increased hedging activities for September and October, reflecting concerns about short-term downside risks [17].