这轮大A行情能否延续？关键看这4个信号！

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current volatility in the A-share market, particularly after the index reached 3800 points, indicating uncertainty in market trends and the potential for both upward and downward movements [3][6]. Group 1: Market Indicators - The first judgment standard is the market leverage ratio, which is currently at approximately 6.8%, slightly up from 6.5% at the end of July but still below the 7%-9.8% range seen during the 2015 bull market. A breach of 7.5% could signal market risks [12][13][14]. - The second leverage indicator is the proportion of trading volume from margin financing, currently at about 12%. Historical data suggests that if this exceeds 12%-13%, regulatory measures may be implemented to cool the market [17][18]. - The second judgment standard is market trading volume, which has exceeded 2 trillion yuan for five consecutive days, indicating potential for continued bullish momentum [20][21]. Group 2: Fundraising and New Accounts - The third judgment standard is the scale of newly issued public funds. Currently, the average weekly fundraising for public funds is 11 billion yuan, which is significantly lower than the peak during the 2021 bull market, indicating that retail investor enthusiasm is not yet high [24][26]. - The fourth judgment standard is the number of new brokerage accounts opened. In July, 1.96 million new accounts were opened, which is far below the peak of 6.8 million in October last year and the average of 3.6 million during the 2015 bull market, suggesting that the current bull market is still in its early stages [33][34][35]. Group 3: Market Stage and Recommendations - Based on the four indicators, the A-share market is still in the initial stage of the bull market, not yet entering the acceleration or late stages [37]. - Investors are advised to hold onto their stocks if already invested, while those who have not yet entered the market should be cautious about entering at current levels due to potential risks of significant downturns [39][42]. - The article emphasizes that this bull market is structural, favoring strong stocks, and warns against the risks of entering at high levels without careful stock selection [43][44].