Cambricon(SH:688256) 经济观察报·2025-08-30 06:01Core Viewpoint - A chip company that has been losing money for eight years has seen its stock price surge 25 times in two and a half years, reshaping the valuation logic of China's capital market, indicating that "chips may be the hard currency of the new era" [1][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The stock price of Cambricon Technologies began to soar due to changes in the industry environment, including U.S. export restrictions on AI chips and the implementation of domestic "AI+" policies [3]. - On August 28, Cambricon's stock price reached 1587.91 yuan per share, surpassing Kweichow Moutai to become the highest-priced stock in A-shares, with a market capitalization exceeding 600 billion yuan [4][8]. - The stock's trading volume on that day was 260.24 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 4.43 billion yuan from main funds, reflecting strong market interest [9]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Cambricon reported a revenue of 28.81 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4347.82%, and a net profit of 10.38 billion yuan, marking a turnaround from a loss of 5.3 billion yuan in the same period last year [5][22]. - The company has accumulated losses of approximately 5.5 billion yuan from 2017 to 2024, but it achieved a significant improvement in cash flow, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 9.11 billion yuan [22]. Group 3: Investment Sentiment - Goldman Sachs raised its 12-month target price for Cambricon from 1223 yuan to 1835 yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating, indicating a potential upside of 47.6% [5]. - The stock's dynamic price-to-earnings ratio has exceeded 300 times, significantly higher than Nvidia's 51 times, reflecting strong market expectations for future growth [26]. Group 4: Industry Context - The rise of Cambricon is seen as part of a broader narrative of China's economic shift from consumption-driven growth to technology innovation, marking a significant transition in the capital market [6][25]. - The company is positioned as a key player in the domestic AI chip market, benefiting from government support and the increasing demand for AI computing power [19][27]. Group 5: Competitive Landscape - Cambricon's technology, particularly its "SiYuan 590" chip, is optimized for various applications, including finance and healthcare, and is expected to meet the surging demand for AI inference capabilities [21][22]. - The competitive landscape is characterized by a mix of passive and active fund strategies, with significant fluctuations in holdings among institutional investors, reflecting differing views on the stock's future potential [12][13][15].