黑天鹅突袭！这只AI芯片股，暴跌近19%！

Core Viewpoint - The AI chip sector is facing significant challenges, highlighted by the sharp decline in Marvell Technology's stock price due to disappointing earnings and guidance for Q3, leading to a cumulative drop of over 40% this year [1][3]. Financial Performance - Marvell Technology expects Q3 revenue to be $2.06 billion, below analyst expectations of $2.1 billion [3]. - The company's Q2 revenue was $2.01 billion, a 58% year-over-year increase, meeting analyst expectations, with data center revenue contributing $1.49 billion, a 69% increase, but slightly below the average analyst forecast of $1.51 billion [4]. - Adjusted earnings per share for Q2 were $0.67, in line with analyst expectations [4]. Analyst Sentiment - Concerns about Marvell's growth trajectory have led to a downgrade by Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya, who lowered the rating from "Buy" to "Neutral" and reduced the target price from $90 to $78 [4]. - Arya noted two main uncertainties: delays in the new project with Microsoft and the company's share in Amazon's next-generation 3nm chip project, leading to a downward revision of the expected growth rate for 2026 data center business from 23%-25% to mid-teens [4]. Market Context - On August 29, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell over 3%, with major chip stocks like Broadcom, AMD, NVIDIA, and TSMC also experiencing declines of over 3% [5]. - Analysts attribute the volatility in chip stocks to previously high expectations and valuations, leaving little room for error in earnings reports [5]. Broader Industry Trends - NVIDIA reported Q2 revenue of $46.7 billion, exceeding expectations, but the market reacted negatively due to concerns over slowing growth rates, particularly in data center revenue, which grew 56% to $41.1 billion, slightly below expectations [7][8]. - NVIDIA's CEO emphasized ongoing demand for AI computing power and projected significant market expansion over the next five years, despite short-term growth concerns [8].