工业企业利润增速降幅收窄，三季度末预计小幅转正｜宏观经济

Core Viewpoint - The industrial enterprises' revenue and profit data for July 2025 indicate a slight stabilization in growth, with expectations for improved profit growth in the third quarter compared to the second quarter due to factors like "anti-involution" benefiting some upstream industries [1][21]. Revenue Analysis - In July, the revenue of industrial enterprises increased by 0.9% year-on-year, remaining stable compared to the 1.0% growth in May and June. The cumulative revenue growth for the first seven months was 2.3%, slightly lower than the 2.5% in the first half of the year [2][3]. - The revenue growth trend shows a continuous slight slowdown over four months from April to July, with April's revenue growth at 2.6% and March at 4.2% [2]. Profit Performance - The total profit of industrial enterprises in July decreased by 1.5% year-on-year, an improvement from the 4.3% decline in June. The cumulative profit for the first seven months showed a decline of 1.7%, slightly better than the 1.8% drop in the first half [3][12]. - The profit margin for the first seven months was 5.15%, down by 0.21 percentage points year-on-year, with a slight improvement in July's profit margin compared to June [6][7]. Industry Breakdown - Positive profit growth in the first seven months was concentrated in four sectors: upstream raw materials (e.g., non-ferrous metals, steel), midstream equipment manufacturing, essential consumer goods, and some public utilities [8][9]. - The sectors with the highest profit growth included non-ferrous mining (39.1%), food manufacturing (10.6%), and transportation equipment (24.8%). Conversely, the coal industry saw a significant profit decline of 55.2% [10][13]. Marginal Changes in Profitability - The "anti-involution" trend has led to profit improvements in some upstream industries, with raw materials manufacturing profits rebounding from a 5% decline in June to a 36.9% increase in July [11][12]. - High-tech manufacturing profits increased by 18.9% in July, with notable growth in aerospace and semiconductor-related sectors [12][13]. Inventory and Debt Analysis - As of the end of July, the inventory of industrial enterprises showed a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, indicating a significant reduction in inventory levels over the past four months [16]. - The asset-liability ratio for industrial enterprises remained stable at 57.9%, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.2 percentage points, reflecting cautious capital expenditure and investment sentiment [18]. Future Outlook - The profit growth for industrial enterprises in the third quarter is expected to be better than in the second quarter, with potential for cumulative profit growth to turn slightly positive by the end of the quarter [21][22].