特朗普降息再施压——全球经济观察第10期【陈兴团队•财通宏观】

Global Asset Price Performance - US Treasury yields continue to decline, with the 10-year yield down by 3 basis points, reflecting ongoing expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] - Global stock markets show mixed performance, with the S&P 500 up by 0.5%, the Dow Jones flat, and the Nasdaq down by 0.2%. The French CAC40 index fell by 3.3% due to rising political uncertainty [2] - Oil prices rebounded, with WTI and Brent crude oil increasing by 1.5% and 1.3% respectively, while gold prices in London rose by 1.3% [2] - The US dollar index increased by 0.1% [2] Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - Federal Reserve Governor Waller advocates for a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with market expectations for this cut exceeding 85% [4] - President Trump dismissed Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, marking a significant escalation in pressure on the Fed, with Cook filing a lawsuit claiming her dismissal was illegal [4] - The European Central Bank (ECB) indicated no need for further rate cuts as inflation is at the 2% target and economic outlook remains stable [4] US Economic Dynamics - US durable goods orders fell by 2.8% in July, marking a second consecutive month of contraction, but the decline was less severe than the previous month's 9.4% drop. Core capital goods orders, excluding transportation, rebounded by 1%, the fastest growth in nearly three years [8] - The PCE price index rose by 2.6% year-on-year in July, with core PCE at 2.9%, the highest level since February [8] - The second revision of Q2 GDP showed a 0.3 percentage point increase, with investment slightly up and consumption remaining weak [8] Other Regional Economic Dynamics - Political risks in France impacted markets, with Prime Minister Borne proposing a €44 billion austerity plan, leading to a potential government collapse and a spike in 10-year French government bond yields to 3.5% [19] - Japan's 10-year government bond yield reached 1.63%, the highest since October 2008, driven by concerns over new fiscal stimulus and persistent inflation [19]