GLP1减重宝典·2025-08-31 03:37Core Viewpoint - Recent clinical results have led to new considerations regarding the prospects of oral weight loss medications, with concerns raised about their effectiveness compared to injectable formulations [4][5]. Injectable Drugs Remain Dominant - By 2030, oral therapies are expected to capture about 25% of the global anti-obesity drug market, but injectable peptides are likely to maintain dominance in the U.S. market due to patient and physician preferences for maximum weight loss [5]. - William Blair predicts that 80-90% of Viking's VK2735 revenue will come from subcutaneous injections, with oral formulations contributing relatively little [5]. Advantages of Oral Small Molecules - In developing countries with inadequate infrastructure, oral small molecules may have advantages as they do not require cold chain storage, making them easier to distribute and consume [6]. Clinical Results and Benchmark Discrepancies - Novo Nordisk's Wegovy (semaglutide injection) has set a benchmark for weight loss at 12-13% placebo-adjusted weight loss, while Eli Lilly's orforglipron only achieved 9.1% after 72 weeks, leading to a significant stock price drop [7][10]. - VK2735 showed a 10.9% placebo-adjusted weight loss in 13 weeks, but high patient dropout rates raise concerns about tolerability [10]. Competition Between Small Molecules and Peptides - Key candidates include Novo Nordisk's high-dose oral semaglutide, Eli Lilly's orforglipron, and Viking's oral VK2735, with differences in manufacturing, storage, and usage impacting market performance [11]. - Novo Nordisk's high-dose oral semaglutide demonstrated an average weight loss of 16.6%, maintaining strong market interest [11]. Data Interpretation and Trial Duration Differences - Analysts caution against direct comparisons between trials due to varying durations; VK2735's data covers only 13 weeks, while others span longer periods [12]. - Early data should not be directly compared to long-term results, as weight loss efficacy often stabilizes after 30 weeks [12]. Market Dynamics and Future Competition - The industry is closely monitoring whether oral therapies can truly change market dynamics, with Novo Nordisk leading in efficacy and supply capabilities [14]. - Eli Lilly plans to submit a registration application for orforglipron within the year, while Viking is exploring further development paths [14]. Conclusion - The emergence of oral weight loss medications adds a new dimension to the anti-obesity market, but injectable formulations remain the core choice in developed markets [15]. - The ultimate market dynamics will depend on efficacy, tolerability, and patient adherence as more competitors enter the field [15].