美股IPO·2025-08-31 07:49Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley suggests that despite BYD's ongoing expansion and strong overseas growth, the expected benefits such as higher average selling prices, favorable exchange rate gains, and larger scale effects did not materialize in the second quarter profit statement, indicating potential "one-time" or "concentrated accrual" negative factors [1][3][4] Financial Performance - BYD's revenue surpassed Tesla for the first time in the first half of the year, but gross margin decreased from 18.78% in the same period last year to 18.01%, with a significant drop of 3.8 percentage points in the second quarter to 16.3% [3][5] - The net profit for the second quarter was 6.4 billion yuan, down 31% quarter-on-quarter and 30% year-on-year, significantly below Morgan Stanley's previous forecast of 10 billion yuan [5] - The single-vehicle profit dropped from 8,800 yuan in the first quarter to 4,800 yuan in the second quarter, marking a nearly 50% decline [3][5] Factors Affecting Profitability - Three main factors are identified as contributing to the pressure on profit margins: 1. Dealer rebates: To stimulate sales, BYD provided rebates on most vehicles sold in China, directly impacting single-vehicle profits [5][6] 2. Rising costs: The introduction of the "Heavenly Eye" advanced intelligent driving system increased manufacturing costs, which were not fully offset by the resulting sales increase [6][7] 3. Price competition: Ongoing price wars in the domestic market led to further price cuts by BYD since late April, exerting direct pressure on profit margins [7][8] Overseas Growth and Profit Discrepancy - Analysts are puzzled by the disconnect between strong overseas sales growth and overall weak profits, as BYD's new car registrations in Europe tripled year-on-year, surpassing Tesla [8] - The expected benefits from overseas growth, such as higher average selling prices and favorable exchange rates, did not reflect in the second quarter's profit statement, creating a profitability "mystery" [8] - There is speculation about undisclosed one-time factors or whether the company chose to absorb negative costs in the second quarter to prepare for larger cost reductions in the third quarter [8] Market Outlook - The uncertainty surrounding BYD's financial performance may provide reasons for market skeptics, while potential catalysts to reassure investors could include seasonal sales rebounds, new model launches around the Chengdu Auto Show, and the actual recovery of overseas business profits [8] - BYD's stock price has corrected 27% from its peak this year but remains up 29% year-to-date, indicating ongoing tension between short-sellers and bulls in the market [8]