人民币对美元近来持续走高原因及对A股港股影响｜资本市场

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi against the US dollar is driven by factors such as rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and proactive domestic policy guidance, positively impacting both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [2][5]. Group 1: Renminbi Exchange Rate Trends - Since 2025, the Renminbi has shown a trend of initial depreciation followed by appreciation, with significant fluctuations. Initially, it faced downward pressure, depreciating to above 7.3 due to US tariffs and trade policies [3][4]. - After May, the Renminbi rebounded strongly, aided by progress in US-China tariff negotiations and a significant decline in the US dollar index, which fell over 10% in the first half of the year [4]. - As of August 25, the Renminbi middle rate reached 7.1161, the highest since November 2024, with the onshore rate closing at 7.1517 [4]. Group 2: Drivers of Renminbi Strength - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has increased, particularly after Chairman Powell's dovish signals at the Jackson Hole meeting, suggesting a shift in policy focus towards balancing employment and inflation [6][7]. - The Federal Reserve's member Waller expressed support for a 25 basis point rate cut in the upcoming policy meeting, reinforcing the market's belief in imminent rate cuts [8]. - Domestically, the People's Bank of China has actively guided the Renminbi's appreciation by raising the middle rate multiple times, signaling a shift from "stabilizing the exchange rate" to "stabilizing expectations" [9][10]. Group 3: Impact on A-shares and Hong Kong Stocks - The appreciation of the Renminbi has accelerated foreign capital inflows into the A-share market, with over 80 billion yuan net inflow in August 2025, particularly into high-dividend blue-chip stocks and technology sectors [12][13]. - Companies in import-dependent industries, such as aviation and paper, benefit from reduced raw material costs, leading to improved profit margins [14]. - In the Hong Kong market, the Renminbi's appreciation directly enhances the profitability of Chinese companies listed there, particularly in the technology and semiconductor sectors [15]. - The influx of international capital into Hong Kong has made it a preferred channel for foreign investment in Chinese assets, with significant net increases in southbound capital [15].