低利率时代日本资管行业如何应对｜财富与资管

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses Japan's "lost 30 years," highlighting the challenges faced by the asset management industry in a prolonged bear market and low interest rate environment, and how these conditions have shaped the industry's evolution and strategies [3][4]. Macro Perspective - Japan transitioned from a phase of anti-inflation to a deflationary spiral in the 1990s, following the asset price bubble burst in the late 1980s. The economy's potential growth rate plummeted from approximately 4% in 1990 to about 1% in 1995 due to weak domestic and external demand [6]. - The government's restrictive policies and corporate cost-cutting measures led to a vicious cycle of reduced consumer spending and increased unemployment, further entrenching the economy in stagnation and deflation [6]. Financial System Perspective - The banking sector faced escalating non-performing loans as real estate and construction companies struggled financially. The Japanese banks opted for "evergreen" loans to mask these bad debts, which ultimately exacerbated the financial crisis [7]. - Regulatory bodies were slow to address the bad debt issues, hoping for a recovery in real estate prices, which led to a prolonged deterioration of the financial environment and wasted public resources [7]. Capital Market Perspective - The collapse of asset prices initiated a "balance sheet recession," shifting the focus of private sectors from profit maximization to debt minimization. This shift resulted in a significant decline in financing demand, leading to a "capital shortage" in the market [8]. - Despite interest rates dropping to near zero since 1995, financing demand remained low, causing a concentration in government bonds and highlighting the "asset shortage" faced by Japanese financial institutions [8]. Resident Asset Allocation Perspective - In a challenging investment environment, Japanese residents favored cash and foreign investments, particularly in foreign bonds and forex trading. The participation of Japanese households in the forex market was notable, with retail investors accounting for 20% to 30% of total trading volume [9]. - The popularity of Uridashi bonds, which provide exposure to foreign currencies, reflected the search for higher yields amidst domestic low-interest rates [9]. Asset Management Strategies - In a low-return environment, asset management institutions adopted various strategies to cope with the challenges. Banks increased their holdings in government bonds and extended bond durations to secure positive returns [11][12]. - Insurance companies shifted towards foreign securities and extended the duration of their domestic bond holdings to improve returns, especially after several mid-sized life insurers collapsed in the late 1990s due to unsustainable promised returns [13]. - Public funds saw a significant decline in the scale of medium- to long-term bond funds, with money market funds becoming dominant as low-interest rates persisted, leading to a shrinking number of bond fund managers [14][15].