克而瑞地产研究·2025-08-31 11:11Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is experiencing a decline in transaction volumes and sales performance among top developers, with expectations of a slight recovery in September due to seasonal factors and policy support [17][20][30]. Group 1: Market Performance - In the first eight months of 2025, the cumulative transaction volume across 30 cities reached 78.69 million square meters, reflecting a slight decrease of 3% compared to the same period last year [3][29]. - In August 2025, the top 100 real estate companies achieved a sales turnover of 207.04 billion yuan, which is a month-on-month decrease of 1.9% and a year-on-year decrease of 17.6% [18][20]. - The sales performance of the top 100 companies remains at historically low levels, with 33% of these companies reporting month-on-month growth in August [20][22]. Group 2: Sales Thresholds - The sales thresholds for the top 100 real estate companies have decreased significantly, with the threshold for the top 10 companies dropping by 4.3% to 56.06 billion yuan, and the threshold for the top 100 companies decreasing by 23.8% to 3.51 billion yuan [22][24]. - The sales performance across different tiers of companies is declining, with the top 21-30 tier showing the smallest decline at 8.7% year-on-year [24]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The overall supply and demand in the real estate market continued to decline in August, but there are expectations for a low-level recovery in September due to increased supply and favorable policies [29][30]. - The market is expected to see a recovery in transaction volumes as the traditional marketing season approaches, with developers likely to accelerate their sales efforts and offer greater discounts [30][31]. - There is a notable divergence in market performance between first-tier and second/third-tier cities, with core cities like Beijing and Shanghai showing signs of recovery due to policy adjustments [30][31].