国泰海通｜有色：关税反复，流动性行情或持续

Core Viewpoint - The recent ruling by the U.S. Court of Appeals declaring Trump's tariffs illegal has reignited the tariff debate, while Powell's dovish stance at Jackson Hole has increased the certainty of rate cuts in the medium term, suggesting that liquidity conditions will continue to resonate both domestically and internationally, with industrial and precious metals expected to perform well as the peak demand season approaches [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff and Monetary Policy Impact - The U.S. Court of Appeals ruled that Trump's global tariffs are "illegal," leading to renewed uncertainty in tariff negotiations, although the tariffs will remain in effect until mid-October [1]. - Powell's unexpected dovish comments at the Jackson Hole meeting, along with political pressures, enhance the likelihood of Fed rate cuts in the medium term [1][2]. - The combination of a loose domestic monetary environment and ongoing international liquidity conditions is expected to support precious metals, despite potential short-term volatility due to tariff uncertainties [1][2]. Group 2: Precious Metals Outlook - The tariff debate may cause fluctuations in gold prices, but the dovish Fed stance and adjusted inflation targets provide upward support for precious metals [2]. - The U.S. manufacturing and services PMI for August were reported at 53.3 and 55.4, respectively, indicating economic resilience and supporting inflation expectations, which in turn bolster precious metal prices [2]. - Long-term risks related to U.S. government debt and challenges to the dollar's status may lead to continued strong performance of gold in a restructured global monetary system [2]. Group 3: Industrial Metals Performance - With Powell signaling rate cuts and the Chinese government emphasizing fiscal and financial support to boost domestic demand, industrial metals are expected to benefit from improving demand expectations [2]. - The transition from off-peak to peak demand seasons, coupled with low inventory levels for major industrial metals, suggests a favorable supply-demand balance that could support prices [2]. - Seasonal disruptions in supply due to maintenance and other factors, alongside rising demand, may lead to a marginally improved supply-demand dynamic for industrial metals [2].