中金：关税成本到底由谁来承担？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unexpected resilience of the US stock market and inflation despite concerns over tariffs and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, suggesting that the market's fears may be misplaced [2][5]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on Inflation - The impact of tariffs on inflation has been underestimated due to a focus on the end effects rather than the transmission process, which allows for a gradual adjustment [3][9]. - The actual tariff rate is currently at 10.6%, significantly lower than the theoretical rate of 16-17%, indicating that the immediate impact on consumer prices has been limited [7][9]. - Tariff costs are primarily absorbed by exporters and importers, with consumers only bearing 8-10% of the costs, which further dilutes the immediate inflationary impact [16][18]. Group 2: Transmission Delays and Cost Sharing - The transmission of tariff costs to consumer prices is slow, with delays of 2-3 months due to logistics and customs processes [11][12]. - The share of taxable imports has increased, but the overall impact on inflation remains controlled due to trade agreements and exemptions [12][19]. - Inventory accumulation has provided a buffer against immediate price increases, allowing businesses to manage costs more effectively [12][19]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - The market's concerns about tariffs and inflation have created a divergence between expectations and reality, presenting potential investment opportunities [5][6]. - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions will be influenced by how much of the tariff burden is passed on to consumers, affecting corporate profit margins and inflation metrics [5][19]. - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the distribution of tariff costs among exporters, importers, and consumers to gauge future market conditions [19][22].