国泰海通证券研究·2025-08-31 13:59Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to continue its upward trend in the coming week, supported by positive signals from SAR indicators and sentiment models, as well as new upward space in the moving average strength index [1][2]. Market Indicators - The liquidity shock indicator for the CSI 300 index was 1.26, lower than the previous week's 1.73, indicating current market liquidity is 1.26 times above the average level of the past year [2]. - The PUT-CALL ratio for the SSE 50 ETF options increased to 0.66, up from 0.64 the previous week, suggesting a decrease in investor optimism regarding the short-term performance of the SSE 50 ETF [2]. - The five-day average turnover rates for the SSE Composite Index and Wind All A were 1.67% and 2.58%, respectively, indicating trading activity is at the 83.35% and 90.49% percentile since 2005 [2]. Economic Events - The US stock market experienced fluctuations, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq indices showing weekly returns of -0.19%, -0.1%, and -0.19%, respectively [2]. - The US core PCE price index for July rose by 2.9% year-on-year, marking the highest level since February 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% [2]. Industry Insights - The State Council released an action plan for the deep implementation of "Artificial Intelligence +", aiming for significant integration of AI in six key areas by 2027 and a core industry scale of the smart economy to grow rapidly [2]. - The sentiment model score is 3 out of 5, indicating a positive trend signal, while the moving average strength index score is 244, placing it in the 89.2% percentile for 2023 [2]. Performance Overview - For the week of August 25-29, the SSE 50 Index rose by 1.63%, the CSI 300 Index by 2.71%, the CSI 500 Index by 3.24%, and the ChiNext Index by 7.74% [3]. - The current overall market PE (TTM) stands at 22.1 times, which is at the 75.5% percentile since 2005 [3]. Factor Crowding - The crowding degree for small-cap factors has significantly decreased to 0.46, while low valuation factors are at -0.65, high profitability factors at -0.18, and high profitability growth factors at 0.40 [3]. Industry Crowding - The industry crowding degree is relatively high in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, comprehensive, telecommunications, machinery equipment, and electronics, with telecommunications and non-ferrous metals showing a significant increase [4].