“申”度解盘 | 9月的三个提示

Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to experience a short-term rise, with a focus on a gradual upward shift and potential consolidation after breaking through a 10-year trading range [6]. Group 1: Market Trends - The market has recently surpassed the 10-year trading range, indicating a reasonable phase of consolidation [6]. - All indices have reached new highs since October 8, except for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 (SSE 50), which is expected to catch up [6]. - The market is projected to target the 3900-4000 range in the short term, with attention to market rhythm [9]. Group 2: Sector Performance - Historical data from the past 14 years suggests that low P/E ratio sectors such as consumer goods, coal, and building materials have a higher probability of performance in September, while high P/E sectors have a low success rate of only 27% [6]. - The AI sector remains a key focus for medium-term investment opportunities [10]. Group 3: Hong Kong Market - The Hong Kong stock market has been in a sideways trend for the past three months, primarily due to its earlier peak in 2021 compared to other indices [7]. - With the expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, the liquidity impact on the Hong Kong dollar may lead to a resurgence in the Hong Kong stock market [8]. - The Hong Kong market is recommended for renewed attention starting in September [10].