连耶鲁都嫌难，私募股权还是好生意吗？

Core Viewpoint - The "Yale Model" of investing, which focused on alternative assets like private equity, has become increasingly difficult to replicate due to changing market conditions and declining returns from private equity investments [2][3][4]. Group 1: Performance of Yale's Investment Strategy - Yale University's endowment currently allocates nearly 40% of its assets to private equity, while cash, bonds, and hedge funds combined account for less than 30% [3][2]. - Over the past three years, private equity returns have consistently underperformed compared to the S&P 500 index, with dividends from private equity dropping significantly from $3.2 billion two years ago to $1.6 billion in the 2024 fiscal year [3][2]. - The average private equity fund used to outperform the S&P 500 by 5-6 percentage points, but now new funds only exceed it by 1-2 percentage points [3][2]. Group 2: Challenges Facing Private Equity - The current interest rate environment has shifted, making financing more difficult and asset valuations less favorable, leading to challenges in exiting investments [4][5]. - Liquidity risks have increased, as the long lock-up periods of private equity investments (5-10 years) are now coupled with slow distributions and difficult exits, straining cash flows for endowments [5][2]. - The increase in investment income tax has forced some universities to sell private equity stakes prematurely, often at a loss [5][2]. Group 3: Investment Strategy Recommendations - Investors should recognize the liquidity traps associated with private equity, as attractive-looking returns may not translate into accessible cash when needed [6]. - Adjusting expectations regarding returns is crucial, as the previous era of consistently outperforming the S&P 500 is no longer realistic [6]. - Understanding the asymmetry of risk and return is essential, as fund managers benefit from fixed fees regardless of fund performance, leaving investors to bear the risks [6]. Group 4: Lessons from the Yale Model - The Yale Model serves as a reminder that there is no universal "holy grail" in investing; strategies must adapt to changing conditions [7]. - The favorable conditions that allowed Yale to excel in private equity, such as low interest rates and a lack of competition, have dissipated, making it imperative for investors to evolve their strategies [7].