不要低估特朗普的决心--美国会如何“降息”？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for unconventional measures by the U.S. government to lower long-term interest rates, which may be underestimated by the market consensus that primarily anticipates a reduction in short-term rates due to Federal Reserve rate cuts [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Expectations and Government Actions - The prevailing market expectation is that even if the Federal Reserve initiates rate cuts, it will primarily lower short-term rates while long-term rates may rise due to inflation concerns [2][5]. - Peter Tchir argues that investors may not fully appreciate the government's commitment to lowering rates, which could include unconventional measures beyond traditional monetary policy [2][3]. - Potential unconventional measures could involve adjustments to the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, changes in inflation data reporting, and even re-evaluating gold reserves to achieve lower long-term rates [2][12]. Group 2: Economic Data and Rate Cuts - The article suggests that if there is sufficient economic data supporting significant rate cuts, market fears regarding long-term rates may not materialize [5][6]. - Tchir highlights that signs of economic weakness were evident before officials expressed disagreement over rate cuts, indicating that the rationale for lowering rates may be stronger than reflected in meeting minutes [5][6]. Group 3: Effectiveness of Traditional Monetary Policy - Tchir notes that the effectiveness of traditional monetary policy tools is diminishing, as relying solely on adjusting the federal funds rate has a long and variable transmission lag, making it difficult to assess its impact [7][9]. - Many entities have locked in long-term low rates since the zero interest rate policy era, reducing their sensitivity to changes in short-term rates, which further diminishes the effectiveness of monetary policy [9]. Group 4: Unconventional Policy Toolbox - The article outlines several unconventional policy options that the government might consider if traditional tools prove ineffective [10]. - One strategy could involve a significant one-time rate cut of 100 basis points, coupled with a commitment to maintain rates unless substantial data changes occur, aimed at quickly dispelling market speculation about future rate paths [11]. - Another approach could challenge the validity of inflation data, particularly regarding housing costs, to alleviate market fears about inflation and facilitate rate cuts [12]. Group 5: Specific Unconventional Measures - A key unconventional measure could be the reintroduction of "Operation Twist," which involves selling short-term bonds while buying long-term bonds to lower long-term rates [13]. - Other potential options include yield curve control (YCC) and re-evaluating U.S. gold reserves, which could generate significant accounting gains and provide funding for other initiatives [14][15].