华尔街见闻·2025-09-01 10:52Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has named Alibaba as "China's Best AI Enabler" and raised its target price for Alibaba's U.S. stock from $150 to $165, driven by the strong growth of Alibaba Cloud due to AI integration [1][2]. Group 1: AI-Driven Cloud Business Acceleration - Alibaba Cloud's growth is expected to accelerate from 26% in the first fiscal quarter to over 30% in the second fiscal quarter, with AI-related revenue contributing over 20% of total cloud revenue [3][4]. - The growth momentum is supported by strong industry demand, upgraded product offerings, and strategic partnerships with companies like SAP [3][4]. - AI-related revenue has shown triple-digit growth for eight consecutive quarters, positioning Alibaba Cloud among the highest globally in terms of AI revenue contribution [3]. Group 2: Short-Term Pain from Instant E-commerce Investment - Alibaba is facing short-term profitability pressures due to significant investments in the instant e-commerce sector, estimated at approximately 110 billion RMB in the first fiscal quarter [5][6]. - The projected loss for the instant e-commerce business in the second fiscal quarter has been revised from 20 billion RMB to 35 billion RMB, with total investment for the fiscal year expected to rise from 50 billion RMB to 80 billion RMB [7]. - Despite these challenges, Alibaba's management has committed to halving unit economic losses within 1-2 months and aims for a long-term goal of achieving 1 trillion RMB in gross merchandise volume (GMV) by fiscal year 2028 [7]. Group 3: Long-Term Value Outlook - Morgan Stanley remains optimistic about Alibaba's long-term value, raising the valuation of its cloud business from $60 to $67 per share to reflect growth potential in the AI era [8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the return on investment in the instant e-commerce sector, while still believing that Alibaba is a key player in capturing the growth of AI-related demand in China [8].