国泰海通｜宏观：“存款搬家”：如何影响股债——中国居民财富配置研究二

Core Viewpoint - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" is fundamentally an asset price comparison effect following the reduction of deposit interest rates, which has led to increased acceptance of equity assets as funds are released from low-risk investments [1][8]. Group 1: Underlying Logic of Deposit Migration - The driving force behind deposit migration stems from the continuous decline in deposit interest rates, prompting residents to seek new asset opportunities as old asset returns diminish [2][8]. - There exists a clear seesaw effect between resident deposits (especially fixed deposits) and deposits in non-bank financial institutions, with the timing and final flow influenced by the macroeconomic environment and risk appetite [8]. Group 2: Impact on Stock and Bond Markets - The current round of deposit migration began in June 2023, initially flowing into money market funds and bond funds, with a noticeable increase in equity fund inflows only after the "924" policy [2][8]. - Theoretically, the decline in risk-free interest rates should lead to a simultaneous rise in both stock and bond markets, but due to transmission lags or liquidity traps, these markets may experience staggered movements, as seen in previous years [8]. Group 3: Unique Aspects of the Current Deposit Migration - Unlike previous instances, the current liquidity bull market does not aim to devalue the currency, as the central bank has not engaged in extensive monetary easing but rather focused on guiding capital back into the market [2][8]. - The recent increase in risk appetite is a result of significant macroeconomic changes, with the central bank's continuous guidance on exchange rate expectations reinforcing domestic risk appetite and restoring the seesaw effect between stocks and bonds [8].