东吴汽车黄细里团队·2025-09-01 14:15Core Viewpoint - The company reported its 2025 mid-year results, showing a slight decline in revenue and net profit, but with a focus on strategic growth areas such as new energy and exports, indicating potential for recovery in the heavy truck industry [3][4][8]. Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 55.69 billion yuan, with year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter declines of 0.8% and 3.1% respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.93 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 11.2% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.2% [3]. - For the first half of 2025, the company maintained a dividend payout ratio of 57%, an increase of 2 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Engine Business Performance - The engine business saw a year-on-year improvement in profitability, despite a 9.5% decline in total engine sales to 362,000 units. Heavy truck engine sales dropped by 22.4% to 125,000 units, with revenue from this segment at 19.34 billion yuan, down 13.2% but with a gross margin increase of 3.4 percentage points to 32.5% [4]. - Key growth areas included: 1. Outline diameter engines: Sales increased by 41% to 5,100 units, with revenue rising 73% to 2.52 billion yuan [4]. 2. New energy: Revenue grew by 37% to 1.21 billion yuan [4]. 3. Exports: Direct engine exports increased by 14% to 37,000 units [4]. 4. Aftermarket: Revenue rose by 13% to 4 billion yuan [4]. Competitor Analysis - Shaanxi Heavy Truck reported a 13.4% increase in net profit to 360 million yuan, with a market share of 13.5%, the highest since 2021 [5]. - Kion Group (Kaili) faced an 80% drop in net profit for H1 2025 due to one-time layoff costs, but Q2 profits rebounded by 38.6% [5]. - Lovol achieved a net profit of 570 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, maintaining the top market share in tractors [6]. Cost Management and Profitability - The company reported a gross margin of 22.1% in Q2 2025, an increase of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting effective cost management in the supply chain [7]. - Total selling, general, and administrative expenses as a percentage of revenue were 14.7%, up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year but down 1.6 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [7]. Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The heavy truck industry is expected to recover in 2025, with the company maintaining its position as a leading engine manufacturer. The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 12.9 billion, 15.2 billion, and 16.1 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.48, 1.75, and 1.85 yuan [8]. - The company is rated as a "buy" due to its low current valuation and strong market position [8].