美股IPO·2025-09-01 14:29Core Viewpoint - Analysts generally believe that Alibaba has entered a period of investment return realization, expecting continuous double-digit revenue growth over the next 12-24 months, with profit growth accelerating as losses in instant retail narrow [1][4]. Group 1: Cloud Computing Business - Alibaba Cloud's revenue reached 33.4 billion RMB in Q1, a year-on-year increase of 26%, significantly exceeding market expectations of 20-25% [5]. - AI-related revenue now accounts for over 20% of external cloud revenue, maintaining triple-digit growth for eight consecutive quarters [5][6]. - The growth is driven by strong demand for AI inference and vertical industry model training, as well as increased penetration of AI in traditional computing and storage services [6][7]. - Management plans to invest 380 billion RMB in AI and cloud infrastructure over the next three years to capture more market share [7]. Group 2: Instant Retail Business - The launch of Taobao Flash Purchase in late April has established a leading position in the competitive market, with monthly active users increasing by 200% to 300 million since April [8]. - Daily average orders peaked at 120 million in August, with a stable weekly average of about 80 million [8]. - Management aims to reduce unit economic losses by half in the short term through improved customer retention and fulfillment efficiency [8]. Group 3: Customer Management Revenue (CMR) - Concerns about a slowdown in CMR growth post-September have been alleviated, with analysts noting that advertising demand has been boosted by the integration of tools and increased traffic from instant retail [9]. - CMR is expected to maintain resilient growth despite high comparative bases, supported by improved monetization rates from the flash purchase business [9][10]. Group 4: Profitability and Valuation - While target prices have been raised, earnings expectations for FY2026 have been lowered due to initial investment costs in the flash purchase business, with HSBC reducing its EPS forecast by 14% [10]. - Analysts believe that short-term profitability pressure is acceptable, as Alibaba has sufficient financial resources for strategic investments [10]. - The valuation recovery potential remains significant as losses in the flash purchase business narrow and cloud business continues to grow [10].