张瑜：一条主线、两个交易因素、罕见的政策推动——对近期人民币汇率走势的思考

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in the RMB exchange rate, highlighting similarities with the macroeconomic context of late 2018 to mid-2019, including low domestic PMI, rising RMB assets, and improved expectations for Sino-US relations [2][8]. Group 1: Main Line, Trading Factors, and Policy Push - The RMB exchange rate trend is primarily driven by fundamental economic data, particularly exports and PMI [4][15]. - Currently, there is marginal improvement in the net settlement rate, but the domestic manufacturing PMI remains low, indicating a need for further confirmation of trend improvement [5][15]. - Two uncertain factors that may amplify exchange rate fluctuations are identified: the potential release of accumulated settlement and the emotional changes stemming from Sino-US interactions [6][21]. Subgroup: Accumulated Settlement Release - The estimated accumulated settlement as of July is approximately between $743.3 billion and $892.6 billion, with a median of around $818 billion [22][23]. - The average weighted exchange rate cost of these accumulated settlements is estimated to be between 7.02 and 7.17, with significant amounts concentrated around the 6.9 to 7.2 range [23]. - The exchange rate of 7.0 is highlighted as a critical threshold, where approaching this level may lead to accelerated settlement and increased volatility [23]. Subgroup: Emotional Changes from Sino-US Contact - The recent strengthening of the RMB is supported by improved expectations regarding Sino-US relations, with historical parallels drawn to the period from November 2018 to June 2019 [30][31]. - The current macroeconomic context shares similarities with the past, including low PMI and a rebound in A-shares, suggesting potential for further RMB appreciation [31][32]. Subgroup: Policy Intent - The article notes a rare occurrence where the counter-cyclical factor remains significant during a period of RMB appreciation, indicating policy support for the strengthening trend [9][35]. - The counter-cyclical factor shadow has shown significant activity, particularly since the Geneva trade talks, suggesting a policy-driven influence on the exchange rate [35][38]. Group 2: Comprehensive Assessment of RMB Exchange Rate - The current valuation of the RMB against the USD is considered relatively high compared to the fitted midpoints based on Sino-US interest rate differentials, while the CFETS RMB index remains slightly undervalued [40][41]. - The RMB's valuation against a basket of currencies is deemed reasonable, with potential for appreciation based on export competitiveness [40][41]. Subgroup: Three Aspects of the Current Exchange Rate - The bank's customer settlement surplus has expanded, indicating improved settlement fundamentals [48]. - Both resident and enterprise expectations have shown signs of recovery, with residents' expectations reflected in the implied exchange rate of gold and enterprises' expectations indicated by the net settlement rate [50][52]. - Trading volumes in the onshore foreign exchange market have increased, suggesting heightened market sentiment and potential for RMB appreciation [56]. Subgroup: Policy Impact - The counter-cyclical factor shadow has increased friction on the depreciation side, indicating a policy stance aimed at stabilizing the RMB [59].