港口集装箱吞吐量继续走高——每周经济观察第35期

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic trends in China, highlighting both positive and negative indicators in various sectors, including real estate, trade, and commodity prices, while also addressing the implications of recent legal rulings on tariffs and local government debt issuance. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The Huachuang Macro WEI index has decreased to 6.16% as of August 24, down from 7.14% on August 17, indicating a high-level retreat in economic activity [8] - The sales decline in commercial housing has narrowed, with a reported decrease of -14% in the first 29 days of August compared to -22% in July [12] - The container throughput at Chinese ports has shown a year-on-year increase of 5.9% over the past four weeks, with a slight week-on-week increase of 0.3% [22] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Retail sales of passenger vehicles have slowed, with a growth rate of +6% as of August 24, down from +8% previously [14] - The land premium rate has decreased to 1.62% as of August 24, compared to 6.5% in July, indicating a cooling in the real estate market [12] Group 3: Production Trends - The operating rate of oil asphalt plants has declined for two consecutive weeks, currently at 29.3%, down 1.4% from the previous week [17] - Industrial production indicators show a mixed performance, with coal throughput at Qinhuangdao port increasing by 7.3% year-on-year, but overall industrial production remains weak [20] Group 4: Trade Developments - The recent legal ruling on U.S. tariffs has deemed most global tariff policies illegal, which may impact trade dynamics between the U.S. and China [4] - The number of container ships from China to the U.S. has significantly decreased, with a year-on-year drop of 33.3% in the number of ships [23] Group 5: Commodity Prices - Prices for gold, oil, and copper have risen, with gold reaching $3,475.5 per ounce, up 3%, and oil prices increasing by 0.5% for WTI and 0.6% for Brent [34] - Conversely, prices for "anti-involution" commodities such as coal and steel have declined, with Shanxi thermal coal prices dropping by 2% [35] Group 6: Debt and Interest Rates - The issuance of special bonds has reached 74.6% of the annual target, which is better than in previous years [4] - Long-term interest rates have shown slight adjustments, with the 10-year government bond yield at 1.8379%, reflecting a change of +5.61 basis points from the previous week [57]