中金 | 9月行业配置：成长风格的扩散与轮动

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the continuation of a growth style in the market, highlighting the importance of focusing on sectors with improving economic conditions and potential investment opportunities, particularly in technology and financial sectors [2][4]. Market Overview - In August, the A-share market experienced a broad rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index declining only on five trading days. The average daily trading volume across all A-shares reached 2.3 trillion yuan, and the margin trading balance stood at 2.2 trillion yuan, indicating a rising trading enthusiasm [3]. - The STAR Market has been the strongest performer since the market's uptrend began in late June, with the STAR 50 Index rising by 28% in August. Investor interest has notably increased in sectors related to AI, semiconductors, and advanced manufacturing [3]. Economic Drivers - The upward trend observed since September 2022 continues, but caution is advised due to potential short-term volatility following rapid increases in trading volume. The global monetary order restructuring is identified as a core driver of the A-share market's rise, with the U.S. Federal Reserve signaling a potential adjustment in monetary policy [4]. - Domestic demand remains a concern, but sectors benefiting from economic transformation and industrial upgrades are seeing increased optimism. Recent forecasts indicate significant upward revisions in net profit expectations for industries such as non-ferrous metals, steel, software and services, and semiconductors [4]. Sector Performance 1. Energy and Basic Materials: - Prices for coal and other materials have shown mixed performance, with coal prices experiencing a month-on-month increase while remaining lower year-on-year. The supply side is expected to stabilize due to regulatory measures [5][12]. 2. Industrial Products: - The demand for electrical equipment exports is growing, and the photovoltaic industry is seeing a rebound in polysilicon prices. New energy installations have significantly increased, with wind and solar power installations growing by 79% and 81% year-on-year, respectively [6]. 3. Consumer Goods: - Traditional consumer sectors are still struggling, with sales of major appliances showing mixed results. The average daily room rate and occupancy rates in the hotel sector have declined [7]. 4. Technology: - There is a strong demand for AI computing infrastructure, and the semiconductor sector remains robust, with global semiconductor sales increasing by 19.6% year-on-year [8]. 5. Financials: - The insurance and securities sectors are benefiting from a recovering capital market, with insurance premium income rising by 6.8% year-on-year [8]. 6. Real Estate: - The real estate sector is still in a bottoming phase, with sales and investment figures remaining weak. The sales price index for new and second-hand homes has shown a year-on-year decline [8]. Investment Recommendations - The article suggests focusing on sectors with solid industrial logic, such as communication equipment, semiconductors, and innovative pharmaceuticals. It also highlights the importance of financial sectors due to improved market sentiment and the potential for recovery in the real estate market [9].