贝塔投资智库·2025-09-02 04:00Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates that Alibaba's valuation has been adjusted, with a target price increase of 35% for both US and Hong Kong stocks, reflecting a positive outlook despite recent revenue and profit downgrades [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - For Q1 FY26, Alibaba reported a revenue increase of 1.8% to 247.7 billion yuan, with a comparable growth of 10% after excluding the impact of Gao Xin Retail and Intime [2] - Adjusted EBITA decreased by 13.7% to 38.8 billion yuan, primarily due to increased investments in Taobao Flash Sales, partially offset by reduced losses in international business [2]. Group 2: Cloud Computing Growth - Cloud revenue grew by 25.8% in Q1 FY26, with external customer revenue increasing by 26%, driven by public cloud and AI [3] - AI-related revenue accounted for over 20% of external customer revenue for the first time, contributing to rapid growth in traditional computing and storage products [3]. - Capital expenditures for the cloud segment rose to 38.6 billion yuan, with a three-year investment guidance of 380 billion yuan maintained [3]. Group 3: Taobao Flash Sales Performance - Taobao Flash Sales achieved 300 million monthly active buyers in August 2025, with a 25% increase in monthly active buyers on Taobao [4]. - The report anticipates July to be the peak loss month for user experience (UE), with expected improvements in subsequent months through operational efficiency [4]. - Estimated EBITA losses for Taobao Flash Sales are projected at 11.2 billion yuan and 31.6 billion yuan for Q1 FY26 and Q2 FY26, respectively [4]. Group 4: Customer Management Revenue - Customer Management Revenue (CMR) increased by 10%, with projected GMV growth of 5%, driven by software service fees and advertising penetration [6]. - Despite high base effects, CMR is expected to maintain high single to double-digit growth in the coming quarters, supported by the positive impact of Flash Sales on traffic and advertising revenue [6].