达利欧：特朗普正带领美国滑向1930年代，整个华尔街却因恐惧陷入沉默

Core Viewpoint - Ray Dalio warns that the current political and social climate in the U.S. resembles that of the 1930s, with Wall Street investors remaining silent due to fear of retaliation for criticizing presidential policies [1][3]. Group 1: Political and Economic Interventions - Dalio highlights Trump's intervention in the private sector, such as acquiring a 10% stake in Intel, as indicative of "strong authoritarian leadership" driven by a desire to control financial and economic situations [2][3]. - The increasing wealth gap, value gap, and erosion of trust are pushing the U.S. towards more extreme policies, weakening democratic institutions and leading to a rise in authoritarian leadership [3]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Independence - Dalio expresses concern over the independence of the Federal Reserve, stating that a politicized central bank will undermine confidence in its ability to protect the value of the currency [2][5]. - International investors are reportedly shifting from U.S. Treasury bonds to gold, reflecting concerns about the stability of the dollar system amid political pressures on the Federal Reserve [6]. Group 3: Debt Crisis Predictions - Dalio predicts that the U.S. will face a debt crisis in about three years, driven by a significant fiscal imbalance where annual spending is approximately $7 trillion against $5 trillion in revenue [7][8]. - Investors are questioning whether U.S. Treasury bonds remain a reliable store of wealth, as the demand for debt is unlikely to keep pace with supply [8].