国泰海通证券研究·2025-09-02 11:58Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strategic considerations for investing in credit bonds and sci-tech bonds ETFs, focusing on cash retention versus bond allocation, seeking flexibility versus static returns, duration versus credit quality for yield, and the term structure of bond holdings [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Strategy Considerations - The decision to retain cash is often a short-term phenomenon during periods of weak market conditions, with low likelihood of cash retention in a weak credit bond ETF environment [1]. - In the current low interest rate and low spread environment, actively seeking static returns from credit bond ETFs is less cost-effective, with a tendency to extend duration for flexibility when interest rates stabilize or decline [1]. - Most ETF products tend to quickly increase duration after launch, with limited instances of duration shortening, influenced by market conditions [1]. - Credit ratings are dynamically adjusted based on market conditions, with high-rated bonds dominating during both strong and weak phases of the bond market [1]. - The overall term structure of holdings tends to favor a barbell strategy, balancing liquidity and yield, with a shift towards longer-duration bonds during recovery periods [1]. Group 2: Sci-Tech Bond ETF Preferences - The configuration preference for sci-tech bond ETFs is expected to align with credit bond ETFs during correction periods, focusing on high flexibility and high-rated bonds, while maintaining a barbell strategy [2]. - Following the recent correction, the attractiveness of coupon rates for sci-tech bonds has not significantly increased, making the maintenance of flexibility crucial [2]. - The current duration of sci-tech bond ETFs is relatively long, suggesting a preference for stabilizing duration in the near term [2]. Group 3: Selection Strategy Under Expansion Expectations - The selection strategy for sci-tech bonds is influenced by the narrowing spread between component and non-component bonds during market adjustments, with a recorded spread of -10.0 basis points as of August 29 [3]. - There is an anticipated increase in demand for perpetual (non-subordinated) sci-tech bonds due to expansion expectations, with three out of the first ten sci-tech bond ETFs including such bonds [3]. - The issuance of new sci-tech bonds has increased, with an average weekly issuance of 427 billion yuan since July, indicating a growing space for new issuances during market adjustments [3].