Group 1: Demand - External demand is expected to be better than internal demand in the short term, with August exports projected to maintain resilience at 5.1% despite potential pressures from "transshipment tariffs" and "reciprocal tariffs" [2][11][100] - Internal demand shows signs of weakness, primarily due to limited use of subsidy funds, with retail sales expected to grow by only 4.4% in August [2][26][100] - Service consumption and investment are performing relatively well, driven by high travel activity and increased private investment in the service sector, with overall investment growth expected to remain stable at 1.6% [3][11][100] Group 2: Supply - Production remains robust, with the manufacturing PMI rising to 49.4% in August, indicating continued production activity despite some constraints from "anti-involution" policies [4][43][100] - Industries with high external demand dependency, such as textiles and specialized equipment, are experiencing higher production indices, while sectors like agriculture and automotive are lagging [4][50][100] - Industrial output is projected to grow by 5.8% year-on-year in August, supported by strong performance in the export chain [5][55][100] Group 3: Inflation - Expectations of supply contraction and rising commodity prices are likely to support a rebound in the Producer Price Index (PPI), with a projected improvement in PPI year-on-year [6][64][100] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to decline further due to weak food prices and low downstream PPI, with an anticipated drop of 0.4% year-on-year in August [8][80][100] Group 4: Outlook - The economic outlook for August centers around the resilience of external demand and the weakness of internal demand, with a projected nominal GDP growth of 3.6% and real GDP growth of 4.8% [9][91][100]
月度前瞻 | 8月经济：“景气”分水岭？（申万宏观·赵伟团队）
申万宏源宏观·2025-09-02 10:15