国泰海通｜海外策略：港股可选消费板块盈利预期下修

Core Viewpoint - Global markets experienced mixed performance last week, with increased trading activity and heightened market observation. There are indications from multiple Federal Reserve officials suggesting a potential interest rate cut in September, with market expectations of approximately two rate cuts within the year. Additionally, economic forecasts for both the US and China have been marginally revised upwards, while earnings expectations for US tech stocks in 2026 continue to be upgraded, and those for Hong Kong stocks have been slightly downgraded [1]. Market Performance - Global markets showed mixed results last week, with MSCI Global down by 0.4%, MSCI Developed down by 0.4%, and MSCI Emerging down by 0.6%. In the bond market, French 10Y government bond yields saw a significant increase. In commodities, silver prices led the gains. Currency-wise, the US dollar strengthened, the British pound depreciated, the Japanese yen remained stable, and the Chinese yuan appreciated. Sector-wise, the materials sector in Hong Kong led the gains, while the energy sector in the US showed relative strength [2]. Trading Sentiment - Overall trading sentiment in global stock markets improved last week, with increased trading volumes in indices such as the Hang Seng Index, S&P 500, European Stoxx 50, and Nikkei 225, while the Korean Kospi 200 saw a decline in trading volume. Investor sentiment in Hong Kong and the US decreased but remained at historically high levels. Volatility increased in Hong Kong, US, and European markets, while it decreased in Japan. Valuations for both developed and emerging markets saw a decline compared to the previous week [2]. Earnings Expectations - Earnings expectations for Hong Kong's consumer discretionary sector were downgraded last week. Comparatively, US earnings expectations for 2025 showed the best performance, followed by European and Hong Kong markets, with Japan lagging. Specifically, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index 2025 EPS forecast was revised down from 2190 to 2140. The S&P 500's 2025 EPS forecast was adjusted from 268 to 269, while the Eurozone STOXX 50's 2025 EPS forecast was slightly increased from 335 to 336 [3]. Economic Expectations - Economic forecasts for both the US and China were revised upwards last week. The Citigroup US Economic Surprise Index increased, benefiting from expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and strong earnings reports from tech leaders like Nvidia. Conversely, the European Economic Surprise Index declined, likely due to a drop in the Eurozone Economic Sentiment Index in August. China's Economic Surprise Index rose, attributed to policy expectations, increased retail participation, and structural highlights in earnings reports [3]. Capital Flows - Global macro liquidity showed a slight easing last week. Recent comments from several Federal Reserve officials indicated a potential rate cut in September. As of August 29, futures market implied rates suggested expectations of approximately 2.2 rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, an increase from the previous week. Last week, US dollar liquidity tightened marginally. In terms of micro liquidity, July saw capital inflows primarily into India, Europe, Hong Kong, and South Korea, with flexible foreign capital and net inflows into Hong Kong stocks last week [4].