全球牛市能否继续？接下来14个交易日“见分晓”

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming two weeks will be critical for the continuation of the global bull market, with key U.S. economic data releases and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision [2][4] Economic Data Releases - The monthly non-farm payroll report will be released on September 5, with economists expecting an addition of approximately 75,000 jobs [5] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will be published on September 11, followed by the Federal Reserve's policy decision and economic forecasts on September 17 [5][6] Market Conditions - The S&P 500 index recently reached a historical high of 6501.58 points, with a year-to-date increase of 9.8% and a 30% rise since the low on April 8 [2][5] - Despite the market reaching new highs, there is a notable lack of volatility, with the VIX index only breaching the 20-point level once since late June [2][7] Valuation Concerns - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of the S&P 500 is at 22 times, making it one of the most expensive periods since the internet bubble and the post-COVID tech stock surge [2][7] - Investors are increasingly worried about the overvaluation of the S&P 500 as it continues to rise [7][8] Investor Sentiment - There is a growing concern among Wall Street bulls regarding the unusual calm in the market, which historically precedes spikes in volatility [7] - A recent survey indicates that investor optimism towards U.S. stocks has reached its highest level since February, with cash holdings at a historical low of 3.9% [8]