巴菲特加持，日本“五大商社”股价已经太贵了？

Core Viewpoint - The stock prices of Japan's five major trading companies have surged an average of 320% since Warren Buffett disclosed his holdings in 2020, but analysts warn that current high valuations and external pressures may not make it a suitable time for aggressive buying [1][5][8]. Valuation Levels - The valuation metrics for Japan's five major trading companies are at historical highs, with Mitsubishi Corporation's 12-month forward P/E ratio reaching its highest level since 2005 and Itochu Corporation's P/B ratio hitting a peak not seen since 2008 [5][6]. - The Tokyo Stock Exchange wholesale trade index's forward P/E ratio has also reached a one-year high, reflecting the strong price performance since Buffett's initial investment [5][6]. Investor Sentiment - Despite Berkshire Hathaway's recent increase in its stake in Mitsubishi Corporation, ordinary investors are hesitant to establish long positions due to the high stock prices [4][5]. - Investors are caught in a dilemma, fearing they might miss out on further gains while being reluctant to take on risks at elevated price levels [5][6]. Earnings Growth Concerns - The Japanese trading sector faces challenges with slowing earnings growth, raising concerns about whether current stock prices can be sustained [8]. - Analysts highlight that external factors such as Trump's tariff policies, a strengthening yen, and declining commodity prices could negatively impact the profitability of these trading companies [8]. Investment Strategies - Investors are adopting more cautious strategies in light of high valuations, with some, like Aberdeen's Arakawa, refraining from further increasing positions despite having established them earlier [6][8]. - Not all trading company stocks are at high valuations; for instance, Sumitomo Corporation's forward P/E ratio has dropped from 59 times in 2020 to 8.9 times, presenting opportunities for investors looking to enter the sector [7].