超600万产能压顶，磷酸铁锂却开启新一轮扩产周期

Core Viewpoint - The lithium iron phosphate (LFP) industry is experiencing a significant imbalance between supply and demand, leading to low capacity utilization and ongoing losses for most companies, despite some firms pushing for rapid expansion due to future market potential [2][5]. Group 1: Current Industry Status - As of June 2025, global LFP production capacity reached 6.172 million tons, with a production of 1.632 million tons in the first half of 2025, resulting in a capacity utilization rate of only 52.8% [2]. - Most LFP companies are struggling with losses, with only Hunan Youneng and Fulimeng Shenhua reporting profits [2]. Group 2: Reasons for Expansion - Despite overall overcapacity, there is significant disparity in capacity utilization among companies, with leading firms like Hunan Youneng achieving a utilization rate of 116.82%, while some smaller firms have nearly inactive production lines [2][3]. - The industry is still in a high-growth phase, with strong market potential prompting some companies to expand capacity despite short-term losses, focusing on future market opportunities [3]. - Smaller companies with limited capacity must expand to attract new customers, as their current production cannot meet broader market demands [3]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - High capital investment serves as a barrier to entry, which may eliminate weaker firms and allow leading companies to leverage their capacity advantages for better pricing power [4]. - In a competitive environment, some companies are expanding to enhance their integrated supply chain, which can stabilize supply and reduce costs [4]. - New production lines are primarily focused on higher-end products rather than merely replicating low-end products, indicating a shift towards eliminating outdated capacity and concentrating resources on more efficient and competitive segments [4]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The influx of strong new entrants with latecomer advantages is accelerating the industry's reshuffling, raising questions about whether current leading companies can maintain their positions [5].