为什么欧洲人口越来越多？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the demographic challenges faced by China and East Asian countries due to declining birth rates and population aging, contrasting this with Europe's approach of utilizing immigration to stabilize and grow their populations [5][11][21]. Group 1: Population Trends in China and East Asia - The average fertility rate required for population replacement is 2.1, but China's rate is only 1.3 as of the 2020 census, indicating a significant decline [5]. - By 2024, the UN projects that China's population decline will exceed 10 million annually, equating to a loss comparable to the entire population of Sweden each year [7]. - Countries like South Korea and Japan have already experienced severe population declines, with projections suggesting that South Korea's population could drop to less than one-third of its current size in a century, despite government efforts to boost birth rates [9]. Group 2: Europe's Immigration Strategy - Europe, despite early declines in birth rates, has managed to stabilize and even grow its population through immigration, with over 600,000 people migrating to EU countries in 2023, primarily from non-EU nations [11]. - The influx of immigrants, particularly from Muslim-majority countries, has not only increased the population base but also contributed to higher birth rates, thus extending the period of population growth inertia [21][19]. - European countries have established various population research institutions to monitor trends and develop policies, which have included open immigration policies to counteract natural population declines [27][28]. Group 3: Population Inertia and Its Implications - The concept of "population inertia" suggests that once a demographic trend is established, it is difficult to reverse, meaning that even if birth rates increase, the population may continue to decline for some time [15][17]. - In East Asia, rapid declines in birth rates have led to a swift transition from population growth to decline, while Europe has experienced a longer period of growth inertia due to immigration [19][21]. - The article emphasizes that immigration is the most effective method to mitigate population decline, as seen in Europe's experience, where immigration has been crucial in maintaining demographic balance [21][25]. Group 4: Challenges and Future Considerations - While immigration has provided a temporary solution to population decline in Europe, deeper issues related to social integration and cultural conflicts remain significant challenges [34][40]. - The rise of far-right political movements in Europe reflects growing public concern over immigration and its impact on social cohesion, indicating that the long-term sustainability of this strategy is uncertain [37][39]. - Russia is also facing population challenges and is considering importing foreign labor to address workforce shortages, but this approach carries its own political risks [43][45].