股牛来了，债市全无机会？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting performance of the stock and bond markets in 2025, highlighting a significant rise in A-shares while the bond market faces challenges due to changing economic fundamentals and market sentiment [2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The "see-saw effect" between stocks and bonds reflects a shift in market risk appetite, where funds flow into equities during bullish phases, leading to pressure on bond prices [4][5]. - Economic fundamentals, including macroeconomic conditions, inflation, and monetary policy, are the primary determinants of bond market trends, rather than stock market fluctuations [4][5]. - Recent economic indicators show signs of weakening, such as a decline in new loans and social financing, which typically would support the bond market; however, the bond market continues to decline due to strong stock performance and policy disruptions [5][6]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - In a bullish stock market, the bond market may not present high value, but there are opportunities for tactical trading, suggesting a strategy of buying low and selling high [7]. - Monitoring the yields of 10-year and 30-year government bonds is crucial, as bond prices and yields move inversely; rising yields indicate falling bond prices and vice versa [7][8]. - Historical trends show that while bond yields have generally declined over the past decade, the current yields are at historical lows, suggesting potential for further declines in the long term, despite short-term volatility [8][9]. Group 3: Long-term Investment Considerations - For long-term investments, key considerations include duration selection (short-term vs. long-term bonds), risk-return trade-offs (focusing on Sharpe ratios), and alignment with market conditions [10]. - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining a rational approach to investing, avoiding the temptation to follow stock market trends blindly, and recognizing the unique dynamics of the bond market [10].