1.56万亿“定时炸弹”！高盛，突然预警！

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs warns of potential market challenges as U.S. stocks enter historically weak September, with CTA funds fully invested and at risk of significant sell-offs [1][2] Group 1: Market Challenges - September is historically the worst month for the S&P 500, with an average return of -1.17%, and the second half of the month is particularly weak, averaging -1.38% [2] - CTA funds have reached a 100% "fully invested" status, with their purchasing power dropping from $27.66 billion in July to an expected $2.96 billion in September [2] - If the market declines, CTA funds could potentially sell off up to $217.92 billion in global stocks, with $73.69 billion in U.S. stocks [2] Group 2: Structural Buffers - Despite macro challenges, the market has internal structural strengths that may stabilize it, including relatively moderate positions among institutional investors [3] - The sentiment indicator from Goldman Sachs is negative, indicating that most investors still have room to increase their positions, which could lead to milder market declines [3] - Record long positions from dealers and low correlation between individual stocks and the market index suggest that selective stock picking could mitigate systemic risks [3] Group 3: Cash Flow Dynamics - Since 2019, $4.09 trillion has flowed into U.S. money market funds, significantly outpacing the $247 billion into U.S. equity funds, highlighting a preference for cash [4] Group 4: Outlook on Chinese Assets - Goldman Sachs sees a significant rotation towards emerging market stocks, particularly Chinese assets, as investors seek new opportunities amid global market challenges [5] - Kevin Sneader expresses optimism about the Chinese stock market, noting a 10% rise in the CSI 300 index since late July, outperforming the MSCI China index [5][6] - Recent data shows the Chinese composite PMI output index at 51.9 in August, indicating expansion, with new orders remaining high despite a decline in new export orders [6]