巴克莱：美股不便宜，但科技股不贵

Core Viewpoint - Barclays indicates that despite the S&P 500's overall valuation reaching 22-22.5 times earnings, it is not excessively inflated, particularly as technology stocks remain reasonably valued and have room for growth [1][2][5]. Group 1: Earnings Performance - The S&P 500 reported a strong Q2 earnings season with a 10.6% year-over-year increase in earnings per share and a 6.1% increase in sales, driven primarily by large technology and financial sectors, while other sectors showed weakness [2][4][6]. - Large technology stocks experienced a 27.6% increase in earnings per share, significantly outperforming their long-term historical average of 8.7% [6]. - The communication services sector showed remarkable growth at 24.8%, highlighting the concentration of growth within a few sectors [6]. Group 2: Valuation Insights - The S&P 500's current P/E ratio is in the 22-22.5 range, which is not seen as a performance hindrance, with large technology stocks trading at approximately 29 times forward earnings, still below the expected level for the end of 2024 [7][9]. - Industrial stocks are viewed as overvalued, trading at 25 times earnings, primarily driven by aerospace and defense and electrical equipment sectors, reflecting themes of fiscal spending and investments in data centers/AI [7]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Concerns - Concerns regarding tariffs have eased, with discussions among executives about tariffs decreasing from 90% to 76%, indicating a shift towards a more positive outlook on inventory levels [12]. - Approximately 55% of executives discussed general AI topics during earnings calls, with a focus on efficiency improvements, while discussions on specific AI technologies were minimal [14].