以1990年代日本互联网股票“飙升”为例，美银美林：中国AI行情还有空间，但是....

Core Viewpoint - The current volatility of Chinese AI stocks indicates that the market has not yet reached the typical characteristics of an asset bubble peak, suggesting further upside potential [1][2][6] Volatility Signals - Since July, the stock price of Cambricon has increased by over 146%, and Alibaba reported triple-digit growth in AI-related revenue, leading to an 18% opening price increase [3] - The volatility of a Chinese AI stock portfolio, including Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu, and Cambricon, shows a realized volatility of 48.4%, lower than 52.1% in 2024, indicating that the market is still in an early stage [6] Historical Context - There is a risk of the Chinese AI market repeating the extreme bubble seen in 1990s Japan, where supply of internet stocks could not meet demand, leading to significant price increases and high volatility [9][11] - Historical experience suggests that excessive funds chasing limited stocks can exacerbate market imbalances and increase bubble risks [11] Market Dynamics - The report warns that if the "fear of missing out" (FOMO) sentiment spreads among retail investors in the Chinese AI sector, it could lead to extreme market dynamics due to limited stock supply [11] - Restrictions on domestic investors using Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor (QDII) quotas for overseas allocations may further exacerbate supply-demand imbalances [11] Recommendations - In the context of a potentially expanding AI bubble, short-term pullback risks are considered normal, and strategies such as fixed strike and low skew hedging are suggested to mitigate risks [12]