张瑜：地方保护的“衡量”——基于税收尺度的定量研究

Core Viewpoint - The construction of a unified national market requires the regulation of local investment attraction behaviors and the elimination of local protectionism, with tax incentive policies being a key measure to break local protectionism [2][4][5]. Tax Competition Indicators - Two tax competition indicators have been established: the provincial tax competition index, which indicates the intensity of tax competition and the attractiveness of tax policies to enterprises, and the tax refund rate for listed companies in each province, which measures the proportion of tax exemptions for listed companies [6][7][8]. - The current tax competition index is close to its highest value in the past 30 years, reflecting the necessity of a unified national market [7][23]. Four Types of Competition Models - The 31 provinces can be categorized into four competition models based on the tax competition index and the tax refund rate for listed companies: 1. Free Type: Low tax competition index and low refund rate (e.g., Beijing, Tianjin) indicating minimal local protectionism [15]. 2. Strong Type: Low tax competition index and high refund rate (e.g., Jiangxi, Zhejiang) focusing on attracting large enterprises [15]. 3. Depressed Type: High tax competition index and low refund rate (e.g., Henan, Jilin) indicating high overall tax policy attractiveness but low emphasis on listed companies [15]. 4. Preferential Type: High tax competition index and high refund rate (e.g., Hunan, Shandong) indicating the highest local protectionism and urgent need for a unified market [15]. Tax Competition Index Analysis - The tax competition index has been rising since 2010, with a projected average of 0.88 for 2024, nearing the maximum value of 0.9 observed in the past 30 years [23][24]. - The highest tax competition indices are found in Central and Northeast China, while the lowest are in South and North China [24]. Tax Refund Rate for Listed Companies - The national tax refund rate for listed companies has been around 5% to 10% over the past 30 years, with a significant increase to 15% in 2024, reflecting a higher level of tax relief compared to historical averages [28][29]. - The highest tax refund rates for listed companies are observed in Jiangxi (38.2%), Zhejiang (36.7%), and Hunan (35.6%), while the lowest are in Shanxi (1.6%) and Guizhou (2.4%) [29].