【广发资产研究】风险偏好承压，避险资产走强——全球大类资产追踪双周报（9月第一期）

Global Macro Trends - Global risk assets are under pressure due to economic slowdown and geopolitical trade uncertainties, while safe-haven assets like bonds and gold perform well [3][10] - The U.S. manufacturing activity in August shows increased contraction, raising recession concerns, alongside trade policy uncertainties impacting market volatility [3][10] - The market maintains high expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, despite rising concerns over fiscal deficits and Fed independence pushing up U.S. Treasury yields [3][10] - Domestic manufacturing PMI in China has contracted for five consecutive months, indicating weak economic momentum, yet A-shares and Hong Kong stocks show resilience [3][10] Asset Allocation Strategy - The "Global Barbell Strategy" is recommended as the optimal response to the evolving investment paradigm, emphasizing a mix of long-term and tactical asset allocations [4][16] - Strategic allocations include Chinese government bonds, U.S. short-term Treasuries, convertible bonds, and equities from Southeast Asia, particularly India, alongside high-dividend and AI-related assets [4][16] - Tactical allocations suggest a shift towards growth stocks aligned with high-quality development, reducing high-dividend stock proportions in favor of more elastic investments [5][16] Key Economic Indicators - The SOFR-OIS spread has widened, indicating tightening liquidity in the dollar funding market [4][18] - The U.S. financial conditions index has improved, reflecting a slight easing in overall financial conditions [4][20] - The Citigroup U.S. Economic Surprise Index remains positive but shows signs of weakening, indicating that economic data is marginally underperforming market expectations [4][24] Upcoming Economic Events - Key economic data releases include China's foreign exchange reserves, trade balance, and CPI, as well as U.S. PPI and retail sales figures [17]