3800点，哪些指数还可以继续关注？

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that investment is based on future expectations, while valuation is a retrospective indicator, making investment decisions based solely on valuation highly limited [3]. Group 1: Valuation and Index Performance - Comparing valuation growth with index growth provides significant insights into the health of index increases and whether they are driven by earnings or valuation [4][5]. - If valuation growth closely matches index growth, the increase is primarily driven by valuation rather than earnings [6]. - A situation where valuation growth exceeds index growth indicates that the index's rise is entirely driven by valuation, often accompanied by negative earnings growth [6][7]. - Conversely, if valuation growth is smaller than index growth, the increase is primarily driven by earnings, which is considered a healthier and more sustainable rise [7]. Group 2: Recent Index Performance Analysis - Since September 24 of the previous year, major A-share indices have seen increases primarily driven by valuation growth, with significant contributions from indices like the Dividend Low Volatility and the CSI 500, where valuation growth greatly exceeded index growth [9][10]. - In contrast, the Hang Seng Technology and China Internet 50 indices have experienced increases primarily driven by earnings growth, with minimal valuation changes [10][11]. Group 3: Phase-by-Phase Index Performance - An analysis of index performance from September 24 to April 30 shows that A-share indices like the CSI 500 and Dividend Low Volatility were entirely driven by valuation growth, with earnings showing negative growth [12][14]. - From April 30 to August 29, A-share indices continued to see increases primarily driven by valuation growth, while the Hang Seng Technology indices experienced increases largely driven by earnings [17][19]. Group 4: Investment Viability - A review of the health of index increases and historical valuation percentiles indicates that most A-share indices are at high valuation levels, suggesting that further investment may not be supported by retrospective indicators [21][22]. - In contrast, the Hang Seng Technology and China Internet 50 indices are at significantly undervalued positions, indicating better investment potential due to their earnings-driven growth [23][24]. - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices are at high valuation levels, with recent performance primarily driven by valuation rather than earnings, raising concerns about the sustainability of their growth [25][26].