以1990年代日本互联网股票“飙升”为例，美银美林：中国AI行情还有空间，但是....

Core Viewpoint - The current volatility of Chinese AI stocks indicates that the market has not yet reached the typical characteristics of an asset bubble peak, suggesting further upside potential [2][3][7]. Volatility Signals - Since July, the stock price of Cambrian has increased by over 146%, and Alibaba reported triple-digit growth in AI-related revenue, leading to an 18% opening price increase [5]. - A tracked portfolio of Chinese AI stocks, including Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu, and Cambrian, achieved a remarkable 74.0% return by 2025, with a realized volatility of 48.4% over three months, lower than 52.1% in 2024 [7]. - The current volatility levels have not reached the typical patterns seen before asset bubbles peak, indicating that the Chinese AI market may still have significant room for growth [7]. Historical Reflection - There is a risk of the Chinese AI market repeating the extreme bubble seen in Japan's 1990s internet stocks, where supply could not meet demand, leading to extreme price increases [11][14]. - The report highlights that if the "fear of missing out" (FOMO) sentiment spreads among retail investors in the Chinese AI sector, and if the supply of AI stocks remains limited, it could lead to similar or even more extreme market dynamics [14]. - Historical experience suggests that when excessive funds chase too few stocks, it can exacerbate market imbalances and increase bubble risks [14]. Regulatory Considerations - The report warns that excessive irrational exuberance in the market may prompt regulatory actions to curb speculative behavior, although such measures may only occur after a bubble has formed [14].