光伏周价格 | 头部企业“抱团”涨价，光伏产业链价格易涨难跌

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent price trends in the photovoltaic industry, highlighting the upward price movement across various segments despite an oversupply in the market and cautious demand from downstream customers [4][6][11]. Group 1: Polysilicon - The supply of polysilicon continues to increase, with monthly output expected to reach around 130,000 tons, an increase of approximately 8,000 tons from August [4]. - Market transactions remain cautious, with lower trading volumes and a lack of strong purchasing intent from downstream customers [5]. - Driven by national policies, polysilicon prices have not decreased despite the supply-demand imbalance, with the highest quotes reaching 55 RMB/kg [6]. Group 2: Silicon Wafers - The overall inventory of silicon wafers remains stable, but there are significant structural issues, particularly with 210RN wafers facing oversupply [8]. - Demand varies by size, with 183N and 210N wafers showing balanced demand, supporting price increases, while 210RN wafers struggle [8]. - Prices for 183N and 210N wafers are expected to rise by 0.05 RMB per piece due to healthy supply-demand relationships, while 210R prices are likely to remain unchanged [9]. Group 3: Solar Cells - The inventory levels of solar cells are relatively healthy, but there is a clear structural disparity in supply and demand [10]. - The demand for 210N high-efficiency cells is improving, providing solid support for prices, while 183N cells maintain competitiveness despite production-demand mismatches [9]. - Solar cell prices are expected to follow the upward trend of silicon wafer prices, indicating a challenging pricing environment [10]. Group 4: Solar Modules - The continuous rise in upstream prices is pushing up production costs for solar modules, yet terminal demand remains weak [11]. - Module manufacturers are raising quotes to above 0.7 RMB, but actual transaction prices hover around 0.68 RMB per watt, indicating a struggle to pass on cost increases [11]. - Despite the challenges, the price outlook for modules remains optimistic, supported by cost, policy, and demand factors, with a low likelihood of price reductions [11].