行业透视 | 9月预期新房供应“量增质优”，成交或迎低位回升

Core Viewpoint - The traditional marketing peak in September has led to a steady increase in supply, resulting in a potential halt in the decline of new home transactions, although the growth rate remains limited, indicating a weak recovery trend [1][4]. Supply Overview - In September, the supply of new residential properties in 28 key cities is expected to reach 5.88 million square meters, representing a 10% month-on-month increase but a 47% year-on-year decrease [6][10]. - First-tier cities, particularly Beijing and Guangzhou, have shown significant month-on-month supply increases, with Beijing's supply surging by 296% month-on-month, although it still reflects a 4% year-on-year decline [7][10]. - Second-tier cities have seen supply remain flat month-on-month but drop by 52% year-on-year, indicating severe inventory pressure [8][10]. - Third and fourth-tier cities experienced a month-on-month increase of 87%, primarily driven by a significant rise in Wuxi [9][10]. Supply Structure - The supply structure in key cities is skewed towards improvement demand, with 30% for basic needs, 53% for improvement, and 17% for high-end products [11][14]. - Over 70% of cities have their main supply concentrated in urban areas, with cities like Wuxi, Suzhou, and Fuzhou showing over 90% of their supply from main urban areas [14][15]. Market Predictions - The expected increase in supply during September, combined with favorable policies in cities like Beijing and Shanghai, is likely to lead to a low-level rebound in new home transactions [18][20]. - The market is expected to see continued differentiation between cities and projects, with core cities maintaining high volatility and some second-tier cities showing signs of weak recovery [18][20]. - The second-hand housing market is anticipated to experience a slowdown in growth momentum, as the improved product offerings in new homes may only attract price-sensitive buyers in the short term [18][20].