国泰海通 · 晨报0905｜煤炭：板块利空出尽，龙头再次展现领跑能力

Core Viewpoint - The coal industry is experiencing a significant downturn, but leading companies are demonstrating resilience and outperforming the market despite overall declines in revenue and profit [4][5][6]. Demand Side Summary - In the first half of 2025, thermal power generation accounted for 64.8% of total electricity generation, remaining the primary source [4]. - Total electricity consumption reached 4.8 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 3.7% [4]. - The total electricity generation for the year is projected at 4.5 trillion kWh, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.3% [4]. - In Q2 2025, total electricity consumption increased to 2.46 trillion kWh, showing a growth of 6% year-on-year [4]. Supply Side Summary - The raw coal production in the first half of 2025 was 2.4 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, but it decreased by 8 million tons compared to the second half of 2024, indicating self-imposed production cuts in the industry [4]. - The average price of thermal coal (Q5500) at Huanghua Port was 685.9 RMB/ton in the first half of 2025, down 22.4% year-on-year [4]. Price and Profitability Summary - The coal sector's revenue for the first half of 2025 totaled 578.1 billion RMB, a decline of 18.6% year-on-year, with net profit dropping 31.3% to 54.2 billion RMB [5]. - In Q2 2025, the coal sector generated revenue of 293.5 billion RMB, down 16.5% year-on-year, but up 3.1% quarter-on-quarter [5]. - The average selling price of self-produced coal for 13 A-share listed companies was 520 RMB/ton, a decrease of 22.8% compared to 2024 [6]. - The cost of coal production was 345 RMB/ton, down 19.6% year-on-year, leading to a gross profit of 175 RMB/ton, which is a decline of 28.6% year-on-year [6]. Financial Health Summary - The coal sector's operating cash flow has significantly decreased, but the leading companies have shown resilience with better performance than the industry average [6]. - The debt ratio of the coal sector improved from 49.2% in 2020 to 47.2% in the first half of 2025, reflecting better asset management and profitability [6].