鸡蛋期货分析入门：守寂，左侧多头的条件？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the cyclical nature of the egg-laying industry, highlighting the current downtrend in profits and the implications for market expectations and investment strategies [2][4]. Group 1: Industry Cycles - The egg-laying industry has experienced seven cycles over the past 15 years, with each cycle lasting approximately 2-2.5 years. The current profit cycle, lasting from April 2021 to January 2025, is notably long at 45 months, indicating potential deviations from historical patterns [2][3]. - The current egg futures price has fallen below 3000 yuan per 500 kg, with total contract holdings exceeding 1 million, reflecting a significant downturn in market sentiment [2]. Group 2: Supply-Side Dynamics - In the early stages of loss, producers adjust their purchasing of chicks and the timing of culling older hens, which can be tracked through chick sales and culling age data [3]. - The industry consensus during initial oversupply pressures is to reduce costs and optimize efficiency rather than immediately cut production. This includes improving feed management, biosecurity, and adopting advanced production technologies [4][5]. Group 3: Investment and Production Capacity - Since 2022, the egg-laying industry has seen a surge in capital investment, with the current stock of laying hens reaching 1.356 billion, up from an average of 1.204 billion during the previous profit cycle [5]. - The strategy of maximizing production to dilute investment depreciation is prevalent, leading to lower price elasticity of supply in response to profit fluctuations [4][5]. Group 4: Profitability and Cost Management - The average profit per kilogram of eggs reached 0.82 yuan in 2022, with total profits for the year estimated at 48.318 billion yuan based on a production volume of 29.38 million tons [6]. - The cash cost of egg production for leading enterprises is projected to be between 2.6 and 2.75 yuan per kilogram, with current market prices still allowing for profitability [9]. Group 5: Short-Term Indicators - Monitoring the culling of hens is more indicative of immediate production changes than chick replenishment, with current culling ages decreasing but still above levels seen in previous downturns [10]. - The construction of cold storage facilities has increased, allowing for the storage of eggs during low demand periods, which has implications for seasonal price fluctuations [11]. Group 6: Timing for Market Entry - Conditions for bottom-fishing in the egg market include prices nearing cash costs, significant cash flow depletion in the industry, and sustained high culling rates [12][13]. - External shocks, such as avian influenza, could significantly impact market dynamics, but currently, no such indicators are present [14].