中金 • REITs | 从公募REITs中报看当前市场格局

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the ongoing differentiation in the fundamentals of public REITs, highlighting the need for patience in improvement, with various sectors showing distinct performance trends [2][3][4]. Fundamental Outlook - The fundamentals of the REIT sector remain divided, with resilient performance in consumer and rental housing sectors, while industrial parks and logistics face short-term pressures [7][8][10]. - The consumer REITs benefit from government policies aimed at boosting consumption, showing improved foot traffic and sales [10]. - The rental housing sector maintains stability, with some market-oriented projects exploring diversified income streams [9][10]. - Industrial parks are under significant operational challenges due to increased supply and weakened leasing demand, with no immediate signs of improvement [7][8]. - Logistics REITs show manageable operational pressures, with regional performance varying significantly [8][9]. - Municipal environmental projects exhibit relative stability, but competition and cash flow recovery need monitoring [12]. - Energy projects, particularly hydropower and offshore wind, performed better than peers, but the impact of new energy market transactions remains to be seen [13]. Market Strategy - The market is expected to maintain a phase of fluctuation, with several concerns including the "stock-bond seesaw," valuation, fundamentals, and lock-up expirations [14][15]. - The current market valuation of public REITs is high, with a P/NAV ratio of 1.28, indicating a need for careful evaluation of investment opportunities [15][16]. - The article suggests that potential catalysts for market recovery include declining long-term interest rates, improved macroeconomic expectations, and favorable policy changes [17]. Distribution Performance - The distribution performance across sectors is increasingly divergent, with most projects experiencing a year-on-year decline in available distribution amounts [19][20]. - Consumer REITs showed an average year-on-year increase of 4.0% in available distribution amounts, while industrial parks and logistics faced declines of 9.5% and 4.3%, respectively [19]. - The article breaks down the adjustments from EBITDA to available distributions into five key components, highlighting the importance of cash adjustments and the sustainability of certain adjustments [20].