中金 | 固态电池系列报告一：锂电皇冠上的明珠，产业化浪潮将至

Core Viewpoint - Solid-state batteries are expected to become the next generation of lithium battery technology due to their high safety and energy density, with significant investment opportunities arising from technological breakthroughs and industrial transformation [2][4]. Group 1: Market Demand and Projections - The commercialization of solid-state batteries is accelerating due to policy support, market demand, and technological breakthroughs, with a projected global shipment of 808 GWh by 2030 [4][10]. - By 2030, the demand for semi-solid-state batteries is expected to exceed 650 GWh, with specific demands from power, energy storage, EVTOL, and consumer electronics at 466 GWh, 90 GWh, 60 GWh, and 36 GWh respectively [10]. - Full solid-state batteries are anticipated to achieve small-scale production by 2027 and commercial production by 2030, with a demand forecast of over 150 GWh [10]. Group 2: Material Innovations - The solid-state battery technology is converging towards the sulfide electrolyte route, which currently has high costs but significant cost reduction potential with scale [5][12]. - The long-term focus for anode materials is shifting towards lithium metal due to its high capacity and low electrode potential, with ongoing advancements in production methods [25][27]. - The cathode materials are expected to transition from high-nickel ternary materials to lithium-rich manganese-based materials, which offer high capacity and lower costs [23]. Group 3: Equipment and Manufacturing Processes - The value of equipment for solid-state batteries is significantly increasing due to the introduction of new processes and equipment in both the front and mid-stages of production [6][29]. - The front-end production requires dry electrode processes that are more compatible with sulfide electrolytes, enhancing production efficiency and reducing costs [30][32]. - The mid-stage production will replace winding with stacking processes, necessitating new equipment such as glue frame printing and isostatic pressing to ensure tight contact between solid electrolyte and electrodes [31][39]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Various companies are advancing their production capabilities for solid-state battery components, including sulfide and halide electrolytes, with significant investments in R&D and production lines [22][20]. - Companies like Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium are focusing on lithium metal anodes, while others are developing advanced manufacturing techniques for solid-state batteries [27][26]. - The industry is witnessing a shift towards more efficient and cost-effective production methods, with several firms already implementing dry processing technologies [36][41].