Group 1: Core Insights - The "nearshoring" of the U.S. supply chain has occurred primarily in Mexico, with significant increases in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) but limited growth in greenfield investments [1][10][11] - Mexico's exports have increased by 18% compared to 2019, while industrial production has only grown by 7%, indicating a lag behind other emerging economies [17][20] - Political uncertainty in Mexico has led to a slowdown in domestic investment, with a notable decline in new investments by 25% in 2024 [11][25] Group 2: Future Outlook - Mexico retains advantages for "nearshoring," including geographical proximity to the U.S., lower labor costs, and favorable tariff rates, despite a 37% increase in wages since 2021 [22][25] - The upcoming review of the USMCA in 2026 is a critical observation point, as U.S. interest in enhancing its semiconductor supply chain may lead to more favorable terms for Mexico's electronic industry [26][27] - Mexico's ability to attract foreign investment is hindered by political uncertainties and infrastructure challenges, with approximately $35 billion in investment projects currently on hold due to judicial reforms [25][26]
兴业证券王涵 | 美国制造业近岸化?——从数据看进展