Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in A-shares is seen as a phase adjustment within a slow bull market, with no fundamental change in the market logic expected to impact the mid-term trend [1][2]. Market Outlook - Increased volatility is anticipated in early September, but it will not affect the mid-term trend. After a continuous rise in August, the market is experiencing some divergence as it approaches the 3900-point mark, leading to potential profit-taking pressure and a need for re-evaluation of leading sectors [2]. - The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed its previous high of 3731 points from 2021, while other major indices like CSI 300 and ChiNext still have room for catch-up [2]. Hot Sectors - The technology sector may experience internal differentiation in September, with low-performing sectors like robotics, new energy, and military potentially seeing a rebound. Traditional industries such as finance and consumer sectors also present opportunities for recovery [3]. - Key trends to watch include: 1. The ongoing trend of robot localization and integration into daily life, with potential catalysts from updates in Tesla's humanoid robot [3]. 2. The push for semiconductor localization, focusing on semiconductor equipment, wafer manufacturing, materials, and IC design [3]. 3. Expectations of order recovery in the military sector by 2025, with signs of bottoming out in mid-term performance [3]. 4. The innovative drug sector is expected to reach a turning point in fundamentals by 2025 after a prolonged adjustment period [3]. 5. The banking sector is seeing a recovery in mid-term performance after initial impacts from loan rate re-pricing, with attractive dividend yields drawing institutional interest [3]. Market Review - A concentrated sell-off occurred in the market, particularly affecting technology growth indices like ChiNext and the STAR Market, although the overall trading volume remained normal at 2.5 trillion yuan, indicating no panic selling [4]. - Most stocks declined, with nearly 3000 stocks falling, while sectors such as retail, beauty care, banking, and textiles showed gains, contrasting with declines in telecommunications, electronics, and military sectors [4].
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申万宏源证券上海北京西路营业部·2025-09-05 03:15